Baku, August 18, 2025 — The price of bread in Azerbaijan remains under pressure as the country’s reliance on imported wheat deepens. Experts warn that long-term dependence on foreign supplies could make bread — the staple food for millions — increasingly vulnerable to global price shocks.
According to Akif Nasirli, head of the Center for Liberal Economists, global wheat markets are highly unstable due to climate change, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, logistics disruptions, and rising international demand. “Imports are paid in dollars or other foreign currencies. If the manat exchange rate shifts, the cost of wheat will inevitably rise, which directly affects the price of bread,” Nasirli told Trend.
Although the government currently cushions consumers with subsidies, low-interest loans, and wheat reserves, any reduction in these measures — combined with persistently high global prices — could make bread price hikes inevitable.
Import Trends
In 2024, Azerbaijan imported around 1.29 million tons of wheat, up 9.9% from 2023.
Import costs stood at $279.6 million, down 7.9% year-on-year — a short-term positive sign.
However, in January 2025 alone, wheat imports surged 23.5% by volume and 14.8% in value, pointing to renewed cost pressures.
The majority of imports came from Russia (90.2%) and Kazakhstan.
Domestic Production
On the positive side, self-sufficiency in wheat has improved to about 58%, compared with just 30% in earlier years. This has helped slow down price volatility in the short term. Yet, experts caution that increased imports discourage local farmers from expanding production, reinforcing dependency on foreign suppliers.
Outlook
While bread prices in the short term may remain stable thanks to government support, long-term risks are mounting. If subsidies shrink or import prices climb further, bread price hikes in Azerbaijan will be nearly unavoidable.
Konkret.az
