Baku/Kyiv/Moscow — August 29, 2025
Overnight, Kyiv once again came under a barrage of missiles and drones. One rocket struck near the Embassy of Azerbaijan in Ukraine, shattering windows and cracking the roof of the consular section. No staff were injured, and the mission continues to operate, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aykhan Hajizadeh confirmed.
For some observers, this was more than an accident. Ukrainian commentator Denys Kazansky accused Moscow directly:
“Tonight Russia struck at Azerbaijan’s embassy in Kyiv — though it missed slightly. Earlier they bombed Azerbaijani oil depots. Now they have moved to outright terrorist attacks on embassies.”
The attack raises a pointed question: was this a random strike in Moscow’s campaign against Kyiv, or a continuation of pressure tactics against Azerbaijan?
Experts: A Pattern of Pressure
Russian analyst Olga Kurnosova, editor of After Empire, argued the embassy damage fits into a larger trend:
“Add this to the attacks on SOCAR’s oil facilities in Ukraine — and the recent arrest of Mamadali Agayev in Moscow. Together it forms a clear picture of continued pressure on Baku.”
She noted the timing: both President Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin are expected at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in China on September 3. Whether Putin will acknowledge Russia’s past actions — including the downing of an Azerbaijani passenger plane — remains an open question.
“The core problem is that Putin never admits mistakes. Until that changes, the hybrid war will continue,” she said.
“Demonstration of Malice”
Azerbaijani MP and political scientist Rasim Musabekov went further, describing to Media.Az, the strike as part of a deliberate intimidation campaign:
“This is not the first case. In Kharkiv, Azerbaijan’s consulate was hit earlier. SOCAR facilities in Ukraine have also been attacked. I believe this is a demonstration of malice — an attempt to scare other former Soviet republics distancing themselves from Russia. It is the behavior of a leadership isolated and rejected by the world.”
Musabekov stressed that Moscow’s tactics would fail:
“Azerbaijan has made its position clear through President Aliyev. Pressure on our diaspora, attacks on our property in Ukraine — none of this will force Baku to bend to the Kremlin.”
Or Just Terror Without Aim?
Not all analysts see direct targeting. Russian political scientist Vladislav Inozemtsev suggested the embassy damage may have been incidental:
“These are indiscriminate terrorist strikes on Kyiv, designed to show Russia will not stop until Ukraine yields. I doubt there was precise intent to hit Azerbaijan’s embassy or the EU mission. In this case, the strikes were random — pure terror without exact targets.”
Between Diplomacy and Hybrid War
The incident underscores the ambiguity of Moscow’s stance toward Azerbaijan: on one hand, congratulatory letters from Putin to Mehriban Aliyeva and economic commission meetings; on the other, bombs striking Azerbaijani property and arrests of Azerbaijani nationals in Russia.
Whether these contradictions represent deliberate hybrid warfare or reckless terror spillover, the signal is clear: Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and assets are increasingly at risk in Moscow’s war of pressure.
