Baku — August 28, 2025
The sharp deterioration in political relations between Azerbaijan and Russia is creating an increasingly hostile environment for Azerbaijani entrepreneurs operating in the Russian market. Following recent events — from the high-profile incident in Yekaterinburg to mounting diplomatic frictions over Ukraine and the South Caucasus — experts warn that large and mid-sized Azerbaijani businesses in Russia are becoming vulnerable targets for pressure from state authorities and bureaucratic structures.
“Easy prey” in an era of confrontation
In Baku and among international observers, the prevailing view is that the current climate in Russia makes Azerbaijani-origin business owners a convenient object for show trials and symbolic expropriations. As the Kremlin tightens its grip on domestic capital and looks for scapegoats in times of foreign policy strain, Azerbaijani entrepreneurs risk becoming “easy prey” for Russian officials and law enforcement, eager to strip wealthy partners from Baku of their assets.
Precedents already visible
The case of Araz Mehdiyev, who recently lost control of major duty free operations at Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo airports, has been seen as a warning shot. Analysts interpret it as part of a larger trend: foreign capital linked to politically sensitive countries is now at risk of being squeezed out under administrative and legal pressure.
Who is at risk
Attention has turned to prominent figures such as Araz Agalarov, a well-known developer with large projects in the Moscow region; God Nisanov and Zarakh Iliev, the developers behind some of Moscow’s biggest shopping and hotel complexes; and Ilham Ragimov, long a shareholder in landmark projects and once seen as untouchable. All remain powerful business actors in Russia, but the current political climate may turn them into targets of economic or political assault.
From business to politics
The issue goes far beyond economics. In the Kremlin’s eyes, any successful business with Azerbaijani roots may now be viewed through a geopolitical lens. Azerbaijan’s deepening ties with the United States and Turkey, its closer engagement with the West, and its role as an energy transit hub heighten Moscow’s suspicions. Within this logic, control over Azerbaijani-linked assets becomes another lever of political pressure.
Mid-sized firms not immune
Nor are smaller players safe. Mid-tier entrepreneurs — owners of logistics companies, transportation firms, and construction businesses — are especially vulnerable to arbitrary inspections, fines, and corporate raids. Analysts caution that Russia’s mid-level bureaucratic and security structures are exploiting the moment to enrich themselves at the expense of Azerbaijani businesses.
Symbolism of the moment
For many observers, the threat facing Azerbaijani entrepreneurs in Russia has become a systemic risk rather than an exception. Loss of ownership, pressure from security structures, and legal uncertainty form a new reality: for Azerbaijani capital, Russia is no longer a zone of stability but a landscape of growing danger.
