By 2100, the UN predicts Azerbaijan’s population will shrink from over 10 million to just 8.3 million. Experts warn that if urgent measures aren’t taken, the country could face a full-scale demographic crisis.
Over the past two decades, Azerbaijan has witnessed a worrying slowdown in population growth—a trend that has accelerated in recent years and is now being openly debated in the country’s parliament. First Deputy Speaker of the Milli Majlis, Ali Ahmadov, recently called the declining birthrate a “serious national concern.” His warning follows a UN projection forecasting a dramatic drop in Azerbaijan’s population by the end of the century.
But what’s driving this demographic downturn—and what can be done to reverse it?
A Decline That Began Decades Ago
According to Etibar Bedelov, head of the Department of Demography and Population Geography at the Institute of Geography, Azerbaijan is “on the brink of a demographic crisis.”
Between 1995 and 2004, the country experienced a sharp drop in birthrates—a consequence, experts say, of the First Karabakh War and the post-Soviet economic collapse. Poverty, instability, and deteriorating social conditions discouraged families from having children. Although a state-backed demographic program initiated by Heydar Aliyev in 1999 led to modest improvements, a follow-up program in 2004 was never implemented, leaving its objectives unfulfilled.
“Today, we are living with the consequences,” Bedelov said. “The long-term failure to address this decline has brought us dangerously close to demographic stagnation.”
COVID-19 Deepened the Crisis
The pandemic years only made matters worse. Birthrates fell from over 140,000 in 2019 to just 112,000 by 2021—the lowest in recent history. Natural population growth dropped to 35,000 that year, with the rate per 1,000 people falling from nine to a mere 3.5.
Although the numbers have slightly recovered, they remain dangerously low. A decade ago, Azerbaijan recorded over 170,000 births annually. Today, that figure has nearly halved.
Demographers argue that the current trend is unsustainable and poses a direct threat to the country’s long-term stability and development.
Urban-Rural Divide
While urban birthrates are in sharp decline (3.5 per 1,000 people), rural areas are faring slightly better, with a rate of 6.5. Yardimli, a remote region, currently boasts the highest birthrate in the country—more than 20 births per 1,000 residents—largely due to the prevalence of large families and dependence on state child allowances.
Still, experts warn that such outliers cannot offset the broader national trend.
A Silent Cultural Crisis
Another alarming trend is the rising average age of marriage, particularly for men, which has moved beyond 30. Experts link this delay directly to lower birthrates. Compounding the issue is a surge in divorce rates: one in three marriages now ends in separation.
“This is not just a demographic issue—it’s a cultural and moral one,” says Bedelov. “We must urgently promote the value of healthy family life through public awareness campaigns and educational initiatives.”
Gender Imbalance and Selective Abortions
Perhaps the most disturbing trend is the growing gender imbalance driven by selective abortions. In many rural areas, the male-to-female birth ratio has soared beyond 120 boys for every 100 girls—a stark violation of natural gender norms.
“There are currently around 130,000 more boys than girls under the age of 14,” Bedelov said. “In the future, this imbalance will fuel social stress, make it harder for young men to find partners, and destabilize gender relations.”
Turkey and Iran have already taken steps to curb this practice. Azerbaijan, he warns, must act fast before the situation becomes unmanageable.
The Bigger Picture
The demographic pressures Azerbaijan faces are not unique—many developed countries are experiencing similar trends. But for a nation with strategic regional influence and ambitions for long-term development, the stakes are especially high.
What’s needed, experts argue, is a comprehensive national strategy: state support for young families, policies that incentivize childbirth, affordable housing, stronger maternity benefits, and cultural shifts that value family and gender equality.
If these steps aren’t taken soon, Azerbaijan could find itself not just with fewer people, but with a fraying social fabric and an economy burdened by a shrinking, aging population.
In short, demography is destiny—and Azerbaijan’s clock is ticking.
