In an in-depth interview on the YouTube program Modern Conversation, Farhad Mamedov – director of the South Caucasus Research Center and a Valdai Discussion Club expert – discussed the evolving political dynamics in Armenia, describing how pro-Russian forces are using oligarchic capital, church influence, and sympathetic U.S. media figures to shape the country’s pre-election landscape.
Carlson – Karapetyan Interview as Political Signal
According to Mamedov, the much-discussed interview between U.S. commentator Tucker Carlson and Armenian activist Narek Karapetyan must be seen as part of a Moscow-backed media and political strategy ahead of Armenia’s upcoming elections.
“This is not just about one interview,” Mamedov said. “It reflects the structure of a new opposition campaign funded by Russian oligarchs of Armenian origin and designed to pull Armenia back into Moscow’s orbit.”
He outlined three key elements defining this effort:
Oligarchic leverage. Armenian businessmen with assets in Russia – such as Samvel Karapetyan – continue to act as Moscow’s instruments of political influence. These figures, Mamedov said, are using their wealth to mobilize new political movements that, despite legal obstacles, aim to reshape Armenia’s political field.
Religious framing. Western outlets are helping repackage Armenia’s politics in civilizational terms, promoting a narrative of Christian Armenia versus Muslim Azerbaijan. Mamedov warned this approach could “distort Western understanding of the conflict” and, if unchallenged, complicate Azerbaijan’s relations with the United States.
Russian narratives in U.S. discourse. By offering platforms to pro-Russian voices, Mamedov said, certain American commentators are reinforcing isolationist and anti-Ukraine positions that indirectly support Moscow’s interests in the Caucasus.
Weak Strategy on Karabakh
Mamedov noted that Armenia’s opposition continues to use the Karabakh issue as a rhetorical weapon but lacks any real plan.
“There’s plenty of criticism of Pashinyan, but no strategy for how to ‘bring Armenians back’ to Karabakh,” he said.
He added that with the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, the “legalistic revanchism” of Armenian opposition forces has lost its institutional base – leaving them with slogans, but not mechanisms.
Pashinyan’s Challenge
Mamedov argued that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan still holds the initiative in the peace process, but faces mounting pressure from internal and external actors.
“If Pashinyan wants to preserve Armenia’s sovereignty,” he said, “he must act against Russian oligarchic influence and the religious-nationalist narratives feeding off Moscow’s media ecosystem.”
Mamedov emphasized that Yerevan’s ruling camp must learn to counter propaganda not only domestically but also across Western media landscapes, where Russian-aligned Armenian networks remain active.
The U.S. Dimension
Mamedov noted that U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly referenced the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process in international contexts – including Central Asia – signaling Washington’s continued interest.
“The Armenian file is on Trump’s agenda,” Mamedov said. “That’s why it’s crucial for Azerbaijan to stay engaged in Washington – to ensure that marginal, religion-based narratives do not set back the peace process.”
Looking Ahead
As Armenia’s parliamentary race intensifies, Mamedov believes the structure of the field is becoming clearer: pro-Russian business interests are converging with religious messaging and Western amplification, while Pashinyan’s government seeks to consolidate its peace-oriented narrative.
“If the Armenian leadership wants to protect its sovereignty,” Mamedov concluded, “it must neutralize these oligarchic and religious levers and act decisively both at home and abroad.”
