BAKU / MOSCOW — July 25, 2025 — Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev has intensified his standoff with the Kremlin, publicly demanding that Russia take responsibility for the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, which crashed over Grozny on December 25, allegedly hit by a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system during a reported Ukrainian drone strike.
The crash killed 38 of the 67 passengers and crew. Despite months of silence from Moscow, Aliyev reiterated this week that Russia must issue a formal apology, hold those responsible accountable, and provide compensation to the victims’ families. According to Newsweek, the incident and Russia’s muted response have significantly strained bilateral relations.
Tensions between Baku and Moscow have escalated further after dozens of Azerbaijani citizens were detained in Russia’s Yekaterinburg in June. Reports of abuse and the deaths of two suspects fueled outrage in Azerbaijan. In response, Baku canceled Russian cultural events and raided the local office of the Kremlin-funded Sputnik news agency.
Experts cited by Newsweek say that Azerbaijan–Russia ties are at their lowest point since the Soviet collapse. Aliyev is increasingly seen as steering Azerbaijan away from Moscow’s influence and toward a more independent, regionally assertive role. The 2023 military operation that secured full Azerbaijani control over Nagorno-Karabakh, carried out without Russian interference, emboldened Baku’s stance.
While trade and energy links between the two countries remain intact, the geopolitical dynamics have shifted. Analysts note that Aliyev is carefully positioning Azerbaijan as a strategic energy partner to the West—without fully embracing democratic reforms. With Russia weakened by its prolonged war in Ukraine, Azerbaijan is using its leverage more openly, testing the limits of Moscow’s tolerance in a region it once considered its uncontested sphere of influence.
