Baku, September 7, 2025
Former foreign minister Tofig Zulfugarov says Azerbaijan should hold firmly to a policy of neutrality and “equal proximity” between emerging global blocs, as tensions with Russia reduce relations from strategic partnership to what he described as little more than good-neighborliness.
Speaking to the Echo Baku YouTube channel, Zulfugarov argued that the shifting balance of power between China and the West makes it essential for small states in the South Caucasus to avoid being locked into rival camps. “The fundamental element of our foreign policy is neutrality and equal proximity to emerging centers of power,” he said.
He pointed to a recent summit in Beijing as a turning point, saying China had moved beyond its traditional role as an economic power to declare itself a geopolitical pole. In that context, he suggested Azerbaijan’s still-pending application to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) may actually serve its interests, giving Baku more time to evaluate how major blocs crystallize.
“It’s even good we are not yet inside opposing camps — it buys time,” he said.
Zulfugarov described Azerbaijan’s geographical position as uniquely advantageous, with sanctions squeezing Russia to the north and Iran to the south, leaving the South Caucasus as a vital transit corridor for Eurasian trade. He compared Baku’s posture to Turkey’s neutrality during World War II, which allowed Ankara to avoid devastation while conflicts raged on its borders.
Relations with Moscow, however, have cooled sharply. Zulfugarov said what was once described as “strategic interaction” has now been downgraded. “In the best case, we will remain good neighbors. At worst, relations become parallel — you go your way, we go ours,” he said. He accused Russia’s leadership of pursuing “neo-imperial” policies and said Azerbaijan was responding symmetrically to political pressure.
On speculation about military threats, he dismissed the prospect of Russian intervention as both unrealistic and costly, citing Azerbaijan’s partnerships with Turkey, Pakistan and Israel as significant deterrents.
“Military action against Azerbaijan would cost Russia dearly,” he said.
Zulfugarov also reflected on the 2020 war, arguing that Azerbaijan’s multi-layered tactics and long-range precision strikes confounded expectations in both Armenia and Russia. “This was the highest level of military art — when your adversary expects something entirely different,” he said.
Looking ahead, he advised Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia to remain outside great-power rivalries while safeguarding their own interests.
“Small states must watch carefully, as the tigers fight, and make the right moves at the right time,” he said.
The interview comes as debates continue over Azerbaijan’s place in regional organizations and as Turkey and Armenia pursue a tentative normalization track linked to the wider Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process.
