Baku, September 6, 2025
On a recent YouTube program by Kiselev, Azerbaijani political analyst Eldar Namazov warned that Russian state TV host Vladimir Solovyov’s talk of a potential “joint special military operation” with Iran – and his use of the term “soft underbelly” for the South Caucasus and Central Asia – signals escalatory thinking rooted in imperial-era narratives.
Namazov traced the phrase to the 19th-century “Great Game,” noting its revival in late-Soviet and post-Soviet media. He argued that such rhetoric reflects a hierarchical view of neighboring states and now functions as a policy cue, not just bluster.
According to Namazov, high-impact talking points on Russian television typically flow from the Presidential Administration through senior media managers – naming Alexey Gromov’s role and network chiefs such as Oleg Dobrodeyev – before reaching presenters like Solovyov. In his view, that chain underscores that the message is sanctioned rather than improvised.
Namazov cautioned that any Russian bid to project force southward would face hard constraints: Azerbaijan’s modernized, combat-tested military, its defense pact with Turkey under the Shusha Declaration, and the proximity of Turkey’s Third Field Army to the Caucasus. He warned a misstep could boomerang into Russia’s own North Caucasus and resonate among the country’s sizable Muslim and Turkic populations.
Addressing speculation about Beijing’s role, Namazov was skeptical that China would encourage instability. He argued Beijing’s priority is the Middle Corridor to Europe – a route that runs largely through Turkic states – making disruption against China’s economic interests.
Namazov also pushed back against narratives that diminish Turkic state traditions, citing linguistic and historical continuity (from customs and trade to political organization) long predating the Soviet era.
Bilateral optics, he noted, remain frosty: despite both leaders’ presence at recent events in China, there was no publicized Putin–Aliyev handshake. Namazov read this as consistent with Baku’s firm stance on sovereignty, accountability for incidents involving Azerbaijanis in Russia, and non-negotiable security “red lines.”
For now, Namazov sees “soft underbelly” talk as pressure politics rather than a concrete war plan – but he urged regional capitals to treat the language seriously, warning that miscalculation could widen the conflict map – and the costs.
