BAKU — September 4, 2025.
India’s refusal to back Azerbaijan’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is less about Baku and more about New Delhi’s reluctance to grow a China-centric bloc, MP and political analyst Rasim Musabekov said in an interview to MInval.
“India may be in the SCO, but let’s be honest: for years Prime Minister Modi has skipped its summits,” Musabekov argued. “He understands the organization forms largely around China — and for India, China is not a mere competitor but the principal rival. It’s Chinese support for Pakistan that keeps India from pursuing its aggressive plans against it.”
According to Musabekov, India’s move hits Azerbaijan and Armenia alike. “If there’s a veto on Baku, it’s a veto on Yerevan, too. Armenia is a pawn in India’s broader calculus,” he said. The larger aim, he added, is to block SCO enlargement at a moment when the South Caucasus is becoming a key stretch of the Middle Corridor — an overland route China views as vital.
Musabekov stressed there’s no tragedy for Baku. “Azerbaijan loses little. Our priorities are deepening ties with Central Asia and strengthening allied relations with Pakistan. We’re already doing that bilaterally and multilaterally outside the SCO framework.”
For now, he called the SCO “largely a talking platform,” saying it lacks strong institutions. “China would like to push an independent payments system built on the yuan, as an alternative to SWIFT. Not everyone will jump, but Russia and Iran, being heavily restricted in SWIFT, might be interested.”
Looking ahead, Musabekov doubts India’s long-term place in the SCO. “The United States is courting India to balance China. I don’t rule out New Delhi gravitating toward formats led by the U.S., Japan and Australia. I don’t see a future for India in the SCO — and it cannot stop Azerbaijan from building its ties with China and others.”
On Armenia–Pakistan relations, he urged against alarmism. “If Azerbaijan is moving toward a peace treaty and normalization with Armenia, that implies mutual recognition and diplomatic relations. Pakistan recognizing Armenia shouldn’t be viewed as negative for us,” he said, predicting eventual Turkey–Armenia normalization as part of a broader regional thaw.
Musabekov also believes Moscow quietly welcomed the halt to both Caucasus bids. “A couple of years ago, Russia would have seen Azerbaijan and Armenia in the SCO as a plus. Today, it reads as those countries becoming less dependent on Russia while strengthening the hand of states unhappy with Moscow’s pressure on neighbors.” He added that another attempt to convene a CIS summit could falter: “We may see only CSTO and EAEU members show up.”
