Baku — September 2, 2025.
In an interview with Novosti Kavkaza, Baku political analyst Elmira Talyibzade said Azerbaijan’s new status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit highlights a changing regional order: the Caspian basin is consolidating around Baku’s agenda while Moscow loses ground as the default mediator in the South Caucasus.
Talyibzade described the summit in Tianjin as the largest in the organization’s history, with leaders of 20 states and eight international organizations present. For Azerbaijan, she said, the main outcome was symbolic rather than formal: recognition that Baku is no longer just one more participant, but a sub-regional leader linking Central Asia, the Caspian and Europe.
China’s economic gravity
She argued that the SCO has become a platform through which Beijing projects not ideology but “economic gravity.”
“China no longer uses the SCO simply as a gathering of equals,” Talyibzade explained. “It deploys the organization as an instrument to extend its infrastructure, investment and technology. For us, that is not a risk but an opportunity. Azerbaijan can engage while preserving independence.”
Baku’s track record, she noted, reinforces this approach. Major pipelines and railroads such as the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway were built without Western financing. “The same principle will apply with China,” she said. “Investment is welcome, but Azerbaijan keeps control.”
Partner status, not membership
Azerbaijan formally received SCO partner status in Tianjin. Talyibzade said Baku never prioritized full membership, knowing that India would likely block it. “The aim was not to join at any cost,” she stressed. “What matters is recognition of Azerbaijan’s weight inside the organization. Partner status secures that.”
New diplomacy without Moscow
The most striking development, in her view, happened on the sidelines: Pakistan and Armenia established diplomatic relations for the first time. Talyibzade emphasized that this step was encouraged by Baku. “That was not accidental,” she said. “It signals a new diplomacy of the Caucasus — one that no longer depends on Moscow.”
She also pointed to the effective closure of the OSCE Minsk Group, once the primary forum for the Karabakh conflict. “For the first time since the Soviet period, negotiations between Baku and Yerevan are proceeding without Russian involvement,” she noted.
Turkey as security anchor
Turkey’s role, Talyibzade said, is now central to the region’s balance. Through the Organization of Turkic States, Ankara functions as a security guarantor. “Turkey’s presence makes the region, in effect, a light version of a Caspian NATO,” she said. “It is a deterrent against Armenian revanchism or Iranian pressure.”
She added that President Ilham Aliyev finds it easier to coordinate with Central Asian leaders than Ankara sometimes does, giving Azerbaijan a bridge function inside the Turkic world.
Moscow on the sidelines
One absence at the summit was telling: President Aliyev and President Vladimir Putin did not meet. Talyibzade said this underscored the cooling of ties after the downing of an AZAL flight earlier this summer. “The expectation now is a narrow window for de-escalation if Moscow refrains from interfering in regional projects,” she said. But she expressed doubt that Russia would apologize or pay compensation.
Attempts at reconciliation have surfaced — decorations for Azerbaijanis in Russia, early birthday greetings to First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva, even a new Heydar Aliyev monument in Moscow. Still, Talyibzade cautioned that such gestures remain symbolic. “Baku is unlikely to soften its line without real concessions,” she said.
Iran’s red line
Iran’s main concern, she argued, is the Zangezur corridor. Tehran opposes any project it perceives as “extraterritorial,” yet Baku insists the 43-kilometer stretch in question lies wholly on Armenia’s recognized sovereign territory. “Our president has made this clear,” she said. “Any questions must be addressed to Yerevan, not to Baku.”
At the same time, she downplayed the risk of serious escalation with Iran. The greater friction, she suggested, comes from Azerbaijan’s close partnership with Israel — a factor Tehran finds difficult to accept.
Toward Abraham Accords 2.0?
On that point, Talyibzade floated the possibility that Azerbaijan could be included in a new round of Abraham Accords. “Baku is already a venue for dialogue between Israel and Turkey, Turkey and Syria, and potentially even Israel and Syria,” she said. “Our participation would strengthen Azerbaijan’s international image as a successful mediator and a country that liberated its territory and concluded peace.”
She suggested that a second wave of the accords could involve not just Middle Eastern states but also the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
Consolidating the region
For Azerbaijan, the SCO summit underlined broader ambitions. Baku is investing in the second phase of its Caspian port, a planned undersea power cable, and renewable energy projects that could make the Caspian not only an oil hub but also a green energy hub. EU financing of $10 billion for the Middle Corridor, she said, shows Europe understands the stakes.
“The perspective since 2020 is clear,” Talyibzade concluded. “Azerbaijan is consolidating the region around its agenda, becoming the central link between Central Asia and Europe.”
Source: Novosti Kavkaza (in Russian). Full video here
