Baku, August 25, 2025 – Debates over the future of Russia’s 102nd military base in Gyumri are once again intensifying, as protests grow in Armenia demanding its closure.
The issue has become a flashpoint in Yerevan’s evolving security architecture and raises questions about whether the base, established in 1995 and extended until 2044, still serves Armenia’s interests — or whether it has turned into a liability.
Azerbaijani MP Elchin Mirzebeyli, speaking to Oxu.Az, stressed that while the Armenian government can technically denounce the treaty, doing so would trigger serious political, economic, and security risks.
“Theoretically, Yerevan could move to cancel the agreement, but in reality such a step looks highly unlikely today. Any unilateral action would mean a sharp escalation with Moscow,” he said.
A Symbol of Dependence and a Potential Target
Mirzebeyli underlined that the presence of a Russian base undermines Armenia’s sovereignty, limiting its room for maneuver with Western partners. “At a time when Armenia speaks of European integration, a foreign military base on its territory acts as both a reminder of dependency and a lever of pressure in Moscow’s hands,” he noted.
He added that in the event of a crisis, the base could easily become a “legitimate target”, exposing Armenia itself to greater security risks. Incidents such as the 2015 murder in Gyumri committed by a Russian soldier, he argued, demonstrate the fragile and volatile relationship between the local population and the Russian contingent.
Strategic and Social Risks
According to the MP, the base also plays a role in intelligence and influence operations, further eroding trust among neighbors and complicating regional security arrangements. “It doesn’t just project power outward; it corrodes Armenia’s social cohesion at home,” Mirzebeyli emphasized.
Outlook
Ultimately, the fate of the 102nd base will depend not only on legal clauses but also on Armenia’s foreign policy orientation, the trajectory of its relations with Moscow, and the evolving regional security order. For now, the closure of the base looks improbable — but the pressure on Yerevan to redefine its security posture is steadily mounting.
