Tbilisi, August 2025 – The Washington summit and the peace declaration signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia under U.S. mediation are being hailed in Georgia as a turning point that could reshape the entire architecture of the South Caucasus. For Tbilisi, the document carries both strategic promise and political risk.
Georgian MP and political analyst Dmitry Lortkipanidze told Kaspi that the agreement is seen at home as a “historic precedent.”
“For the first time in decades of conflict and mistrust, the sides have reached an accord not imposed by outside coercion but framed in a way that recognizes sovereignty and international law,” he said.
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A window of opportunity — and fear of Russia’s shadow
In Georgian public discourse, the declaration is viewed as an opening to move beyond confrontation toward cooperation in transport, energy, trade and humanitarian projects. Long-discussed initiatives such as the Middle Corridor and the Zangezur link may finally gain momentum, with Georgia acting as a transit and diplomatic bridge.
But Lortkipanidze warned that optimism is tempered by hard realities.
“Any deal is fragile without real reforms and trust between societies. And Russia, which traditionally tries to block processes it cannot control, remains a constant factor,” he noted.
Corridors that redefine geopolitics
The expert pointed out that the Zangezur crossing and the North–South route (7,200 km from St. Petersburg to Mumbai) could place Georgia at the center of two mega-corridors, reshaping Eurasian logistics.
“Georgia can become a vital link in both the Middle Corridor and the North–South chain. This is a chance to turn turbulence into long-term development,” he argued.
Between opportunity and risk
Yet challenges remain severe. Georgia still lacks control over 20% of its territory — Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region — with around 400,000 displaced persons. Moscow maintains a heavy footprint, while a third of ethnic Georgians live in Russia.
Against this backdrop, Lortkipanidze sees the rise of U.S., NATO and Turkey’s role as both risk and opportunity:
Risks: Georgia could become an arena of bloc rivalry, suffer new pressure on its fragile security, and face disruptions in trade and energy corridors.
Opportunities: Strengthening its position as a hub in the Middle Corridor, anchoring Black Sea connectivity, and diversifying energy flows.
“Strategically, Georgia must deepen ties with the U.S., NATO and Turkey, but without burning bridges to Russia and neighbors. Only pragmatic balance can prevent new fault lines,” Lortkipanidze concluded.
