By Eldar S.,Special to Azerbaijan.US
Tehran, August 23 2025 — When Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, admitted that Tehran has no evidence of Azerbaijani involvement in the 12-day war with Israel, it was more than just a diplomatic clarification. It was a confession of weakness.
For weeks, Iranian officials and media outlets had whispered accusations: that Baku allowed its territory to be used, that Israeli drones or bases in Azerbaijan supported the strikes. But when pressed for proof, Larijani had nothing. Instead, he pivoted to empty compliments: “Azerbaijan is a Muslim neighbor, culturally close, and our friend.”
This climbdown is telling. Iran does not fear Azerbaijan alone — it fears Azerbaijan’s allies.
Baku today is not isolated. It is firmly embedded in a powerful triangle:
Turkey, NATO’s second-largest military, with deep defense integration and a “one nation, two states” bond.
Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state that has openly declared support for Azerbaijan’s sovereignty.
Israel, Iran’s sworn enemy, but also Azerbaijan’s strategic defense and technology partner.
For Tehran, to attack Azerbaijan outright would mean challenging this bloc. That is why, instead of confrontation, Larijani’s words suddenly dripped with “friendship.”
This is not the language of strength; it is the rhetoric of fear. Iran knows that a miscalculation could transform the South Caucasus into a geopolitical trap — one where Turkish air power, Pakistani deterrence, and Israeli technology all align with Baku.
It is also no coincidence that this Iranian retreat comes at a time when Moscow is losing ground in the Caucasus. Russia’s weakening grip has left Iran exposed, while Azerbaijan has expanded its influence through Washington, Ankara, and beyond.
The irony is clear: Tehran accuses others of “foreign meddling,” yet its own paranoia exposes the truth — that it cannot afford a direct clash with Azerbaijan. The mere existence of Baku’s alliances has become a deterrent more powerful than any weapon.
In the end, Larijani’s statement was less about facts and more about survival. Iran may talk loudly, but when confronted, it retreats into flattery. That is what happens when a state realizes it is surrounded not by enemies of its choosing, but by the allies of its neighbor — allies it cannot defeat.
