By Eldar S., Special to Azerbaijan.US
Russia has crossed a line. The repeated destruction of SOCAR energy facilities in Ukraine is not a military tactic, not even an act of war against Kyiv — it is a message of pure blackmail to Baku. When Russian drones reduced to ashes all 17 storage tanks of SOCAR’s Odesa depot on August 18, just ten days after striking the very same site, Moscow made its intentions unmistakable: intimidate Azerbaijan, punish its independence, and remind the world that the Kremlin will treat any defiance as treason.
This is not war. It is state terrorism.
Why Azerbaijan?
SOCAR embodies Azerbaijan’s sovereignty on the global stage — its energy, its reputation, its independence. By targeting SOCAR in Ukraine, Russia is saying: “Your neutrality means nothing. Your aid to Kyiv will be punished. Your freedom of action is ours to curtail.”
The destruction of infrastructure serving no decisive military purpose was staged for effect. Moscow wanted headlines, flames, and the unmistakable smell of fuel burning — a performance of intimidation meant to humiliate a neighbor that refuses to bend.
A Calculated Blackmail
The Kremlin believes Azerbaijan has no “red line.” It assumes Baku will grit its teeth and stay silent. It bets Turkey and Israel will restrict any weapons re-export to Ukraine, leaving Azerbaijan too isolated to act. And it calculates that SOCAR, despite being a national champion, can be sacrificed without retaliation.
Ukrainian analyst Mykhailo Honchar is right: these are not random strikes, but a campaign of demonstrative punishment, rehearsed in the Kremlin. They belong to a wider war of nerves — a slow grind of threats and destruction designed to sap Azerbaijan’s will.
A Dangerous Signal to the Region
By allowing itself to strike Azerbaijan’s assets abroad without consequence, Moscow is sending a broader signal: any country that dares to defy Russia’s imperial view will be punished outside its borders. Today it is SOCAR depots in Ukraine; tomorrow it could be pipelines, trade routes, or even cultural institutions elsewhere.
This is more than intimidation. It is an attempt to put Azerbaijan back in the Kremlin’s sphere through coercion, bypassing diplomacy and respect.
Time to Answer
The question is not whether these attacks are blackmail — they are. The real question is how Azerbaijan will respond. Silence will be read as weakness. Restraint will be read as consent.
Moscow’s message is clear: Russia wants Baku to fear, to hesitate, to yield. But the longer Azerbaijan swallows these provocations, the more emboldened the Kremlin will become.
Every drone that strikes SOCAR is not only a strike on Ukraine. It is a strike on Azerbaijan’s independence. And history will remember not only the aggressor, but also whether the victim chose to resist.
