Moscow continues to display a confrontational stance toward Baku. Following the downing of an AZAL passenger plane, Russia has escalated its “unhealthy activity” — from orchestrating attacks on the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg to striking SOCAR’s energy infrastructure in Ukraine, and launching fresh anti-Azerbaijani propaganda campaigns in its state media.
The roots of Azerbaijan’s grievances against Russia run deep — from the January 20 tragedy and the Khojaly massacre, to the occupation of Azerbaijani territories, Moscow’s military support for Armenia, and the conditions enabling a 30-year occupation of Karabakh. Going further back, Azerbaijanis recall the Russian Empire’s annexation of the Ganja, Karabakh, and Lankaran khanates, the killing of Ibrahim Khalil Khan, the resettlement of Armenians onto Azerbaijani lands, and the deportation of local populations.
Recent statements from the Kremlin and its loyal propagandists have only added fuel to the fire. On state TV’s “Sunday Evening,” the notorious Vladimir Solovyov claimed that a new “special military operation” could be launched in the South Caucasus, warning of a potential NATO presence near the Caspian Sea.
Soon after, controversial Russian MP Andrey Gurulev lashed out at Baku’s reported consideration of lifting its arms embargo on Ukraine. Threatening economic retaliation, he said Russian stores could go without Azerbaijani goods and hinted that Russian security forces might “pressure” Azerbaijani entrepreneurs in Russia. His remarks carried a thinly veiled warning: “A special military operation is a stretchable concept — stretchable across the entire Russian border.”
Analysts: Open Conflict Unlikely, But Hybrid Warfare a Risk
Vladimir Fesenko, head of Ukraine’s Penta Center for Political Studies, believes Russia is unlikely to open a second front while fighting a full-scale war in Ukraine.
“Kremlin strategists understand that Ankara stands firmly behind Baku. A clash with Turkey is not in Russia’s interest. Another factor restraining Putin is Donald Trump — Azerbaijan just initialed a peace agreement with Armenia in the White House, and on August 15, Trump is set to meet Putin. In these circumstances, even a limited military conflict with Baku risks derailing a fragile thaw with Washington,” Fesenko told Media.Az.
However, he warned of intensified propaganda and possible Kremlin provocations in a hybrid warfare format — both inside Azerbaijan and in third countries — posing challenges for Baku’s security services and their partners.
‘Russia Has Proven Itself Irrational’
Rovshan Ibrahimov, professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in South Korea, noted that U.S. involvement in the region would likely take the form of private consulting and security firms in Armenia.
“In terms of security guarantees, Azerbaijan can count on Turkey under the Shusha Declaration, as well as other allies. Aggression under international law is not limited to occupation — it includes any interference, such as supporting internal groups or conducting attacks from abroad with any type of weapon,” he said.
Ibrahimov described Russia as an “irrational state,” citing its conduct in Ukraine and its rhetoric toward Azerbaijan. He noted that Baku has tried to maintain neutrality and avoid infringing on Moscow’s core interests, yet certain circles in Russia still pursue hostile actions.
He also pointed out the irony that much of the anti-Azerbaijani hysteria is driven by “propagandists and individuals not known for their intellect,” while official Russian institutions — the Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry, and the presidential administration — have so far refrained from openly joining in.
Still, he emphasized that the SOCAR infrastructure attack in Ukraine and the heavy-handed actions against Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg suggest that such moves are sanctioned at the highest levels.
“Azerbaijan must be prepared for any scenario,” Ibrahimov said. “Given Moscow’s unpredictability, it is difficult to forecast the trajectory. But if anyone dares to target Azerbaijan, the cost for the aggressor will be high.”
