July 28, 2025 – Baku/Kyiv
Azerbaijan has officially begun exporting natural gas to Ukraine, marking a historic development in bilateral relations and opening a new chapter in the regional energy landscape.
The announcement came from Ukraine’s Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSOU), confirming that gas deliveries are taking place via the reverse-flow Trans-Balkan Pipeline route — through Bulgaria, Romania, and Moldova into Ukraine. The arrangement follows an agreement between Naftogaz of Ukraine and SOCAR Energy Ukraine, according to Kaspiy newspaper.
Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov hailed the deal as “a new page in Ukraine’s energy history,” emphasizing that it allows the country to source gas from a friendly and reliable partner — bypassing Russian infrastructure entirely. SOCAR also expressed readiness for “long-term, mutually beneficial cooperation based on market principles and strategic understanding.”
From Ghost Pipeline to Vital Artery
The Trans-Balkan route, largely idle since Russia halted major gas flows through Ukraine in 2020, has been revived thanks to EU diversification efforts and the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC), which includes the TANAP and TAP pipelines.
A turning point came in 2023, when Bulgaria secured access to Turkish gas infrastructure, enabling the delivery of Caspian gas into the Balkans. Upgraded compressor stations have since allowed for northbound flows into Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities confirmed that gas reaching Bulgaria is now making its way through Romania and Moldova to the Ukrainian border.
Symbolic and Strategic Breakthrough
Although initial volumes remain modest — 2 to 3 million cubic meters per day — GTSOU head Pavlo Stanchak called the achievement a “huge symbolic and strategic success.” For the first time, Ukraine is importing gas from the South Caucasus region without using Russian transit infrastructure.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov added, “This step not only boosts our energy independence, but strengthens our ties with partners who share European values.”
Expansion Plans and Obstacles
Ukraine and Azerbaijan are exploring the possibility of scaling up deliveries to 5–7 billion cubic meters annually. However, challenges remain. The Trans-Balkan system requires further modernization; some compressor stations are outdated, transit tariffs are high in certain countries, and capacity may drop during winter months.
Moreover, experts note that Azerbaijani gas — transiting through Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania — currently costs more than LNG arriving via European terminals. Still, with long-term contracts and infrastructure expansion, pipeline gas could become more cost-effective.
Geopolitical Dimensions
With Russian gas deliveries halted, Ukraine urgently needs politically neutral and secure energy sources. Unlike EU states, Kyiv isn’t bound by strict decarbonization mandates, giving it more flexibility in long-term energy planning and inking deals with partners like Azerbaijan.
For Baku, Ukraine offers a new export market beyond the increasingly regulated and politicized EU energy space. It also helps SOCAR diversify its client base, strengthen its presence in Eastern Europe, and contribute to reshaping the regional energy architecture.
A Caspian-European Energy Bridge
Azerbaijan already has infrastructure poised for expansion. TANAP could double its capacity from 16 to 31 bcm/year, while TAP could scale from 10 to 20 bcm — laying the foundation for a second investment wave in the Southern Gas Corridor. But this requires solid contracts and reliable demand, which Ukraine can provide.
Thus, Azerbaijani gas exports to Ukraine are not a short-term fix — they could represent the beginning of a strategic energy alliance. For Azerbaijan, it’s access to a promising new market; for Ukraine, it’s a critical step toward stable, independent energy security amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The growing energy partnership between Kyiv and Baku is reshaping Eurasian dynamics, reinforcing the Turkic vector in regional energy diplomacy, and redrawing the map of pipeline geopolitics.
