In a recent interview with Globalinfo.az, former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Matthew Bryza commented on the evolving diplomatic and political tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia, noting a sharp deterioration in relations that began at the end of 2024.
“At the end of last year, ties between Azerbaijan and Russia were very strong,” Bryza said. “Presidents Aliyev and Putin held a meeting in November and declared the establishment of close bilateral relations.”
However, Bryza pointed to a turning point in late December:
“On December 25, an Azerbaijani Airlines passenger plane was tragically struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile over Grozny airspace. If you recall, Russia refused the plane permission to land, forcing it to continue flying over the Caspian Sea. Ultimately, the aircraft crashed near Aktau, killing dozens. Thankfully, there were survivors.”
Bryza believes President Vladimir Putin’s failure to officially apologize or acknowledge responsibility for the incident has deeply angered Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
“Putin tried to portray it as an accidental strike, but the absence of a formal apology or compensation has clearly frustrated Baku,” he explained.
According to Bryza, relations continued to deteriorate into 2025, with tensions escalating further following the violent arrest of Azerbaijani nationals in Yekaterinburg by Russian security forces in late May — an incident that reportedly resulted in the deaths of two detainees due to torture.
In response, Azerbaijan shut down the local office of Russia’s state news outlet “Sputnik”. Bryza also noted growing speculation that Baku may consider closing all Russian-language schools in the country:
“That would be a highly significant move,” he said. “Historically, Russia has claimed the right to ‘defend’ Russian speakers — in the Baltics, through hybrid warfare, and in Ukraine, through kinetic war. Such a step from Azerbaijan would send a strong message.”
Bryza believes Moscow may be trying to undermine peace efforts between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as the two countries approach a potential peace agreement — something he says would diminish Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus:
“At the same time, Armenia is distancing itself from Russia and strengthening ties with the U.S. and Europe. Azerbaijan is also deepening its relationship with Turkey,” he noted. “Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and is steadily losing influence in both Baku and Yerevan.”
Bryza concluded that the crackdown on Azerbaijani nationals in Russia may have been intended as a message to Baku, but President Aliyev is responding forcefully:
“This isn’t just a diplomatic disagreement anymore — it’s becoming a geopolitical realignment.”
