Azerbaijan.US
Azerbaijani political analyst Ilgar Velizade said on Echo Baku that a forceful strike against Iran is highly likely, though its format and scale remain unclear.
According to Velizade, this does not necessarily point to a full-scale war. The most plausible scenario, he argues, involves a series of air and precision strikes that could alternate with behind-the-scenes contacts and negotiations between the parties.
“A strike will happen-there is little doubt about that. The only question is whether it escalates into a full-scale war or remains limited to modern forms of warfare: air power, drones, and special operations,” Velizade said.
Possible scenarios
The analyst outlined several potential paths. The first is an attempt to “decapitate” Iran’s leadership in order to create a power vacuum and trigger internal instability. A second scenario envisions the removal of the top religious leadership, opening space for more moderate forces to negotiate with the United States under new terms.
The third-and most dangerous-scenario, Velizade warned, would involve trying to impose an alternative leader from outside Iran. Such an approach, he said, would almost inevitably produce chaos and uncontrolled resistance inside the country.
“The idea that Iran could be brought under control without a major internal conflict is a serious illusion. There are simply too many political and security groups inside the country,” he stressed.
Ground invasion unlikely
Velizade ruled out a classic ground invasion, noting that it would mean a long and bloody war for which neither side appears prepared. Instead, he said, limited special operations involving highly trained units and external support are far more likely.
Azerbaijan’s position
Velizade also addressed Baku’s stance, recalling that Azerbaijan has officially stated it will not allow its territory to be used against Iran. At the same time, he argued that the decisive factor in any escalation will not be regional actors, but strategic decisions taken in Washington.
In his view, the United States may still opt for a force-based approach despite resistance from regional partners, calculating that the impact on its broader geopolitical position will be manageable.
Talks continue – under pressure
Harsh public rhetoric, Velizade noted, does not mean contacts have been severed. On the contrary, he said negotiations between Iran and the United States continue in non-public formats.
“What matters is not what is said publicly, but the steps taken in practice. Communication channels remain open, and that is crucial,” he said.
In conclusion, Velizade described the current pressure on Iran as an attempt to activate internal dynamics and test which of several pre-prepared scenarios proves most effective.
