Azerbaijan.US
Economist Natig Jafarli has drawn attention to the widening gap between the falling import cost of premium AI-95 gasoline and its unchanged retail price in Azerbaijan.
In a Facebook post, Jafarli noted that while the average import price of one ton of premium gasoline stood at $938 in 2024, it fell by 9% in 2025 to $856 (around 1,455 manats). One ton of AI-95 equals roughly 1,333 liters, putting the import cost at about 1.09 manats per liter.
According to Jafarli’s breakdown, the price structure per liter looks as follows:
import cost: 1.09 manats;
road tax: 0.07 manats;
VAT (18%): about 0.19 manats.
This brings the total cost to roughly 1.35 manats per liter, while AI-95 is sold at 1.60 manats at the pump.
Jafarli estimates the margin at around 0.25 manats per liter.
He also pointed to market volumes. In the first 11 months of 2025, imports of premium gasoline totaled 128,000 tons, or about 170.6 million liters. Based on his calculations, this translates into more than 42.6 million manats in profit over that period, excluding December.
Jafarli describes the AI-95 market as monopolistic. While the price of AI-95 is not regulated by the state and is formally supposed to be market-driven, he argues that the only effective players are subsidiaries of SOCAR, which set retail prices.
“If there were real competition, a business earning 25 gapiks per liter would attract multiple new entrants, inevitably pushing prices down,” Jafarli said.
He stressed that despite the 9% drop in import prices in 2025, retail prices for AI-95 have not declined, calling this the central flaw of the current pricing model.
