Azerbaijan.US
Political analyst and economist Natig Jafarli has warned that any serious political or social upheaval in Iran could lead to a major migration crisis in the region, with Turkey likely to face the greatest impact.
Speaking on Prime TV Azerbaijan, Jafarli said Ankara views possible instability in Iran with deep concern, primarily due to the length of the shared border and Iran’s population of more than 90 million.
“Turkey has already lived through the Syrian scenario,” Jafarli noted. “Around five million Syrians entered the country in a relatively short period of time, creating serious social tension and long-term political consequences.”
According to the analyst, migration became one of the most sensitive issues in Turkey’s domestic politics and played a visible role in recent municipal elections, fueling public dissatisfaction and protests.
Jafarli stressed that a similar scenario involving Iran could be far more severe.
“If even five to ten million people were to leave Iran, the consequences for Turkey would be extremely difficult – socially, economically, and politically,” he said.
He explained that Turkey’s cautious stance toward developments in Iran is driven not by ideology, but by pragmatic state interests.
“In such situations, states act based on self-preservation,” Jafarli said. “Turkey is not interested in chaos along its borders.”
The analyst also argued that the United States follows a similar logic, prioritizing negotiations with influential elites over abrupt regime-change scenarios when large-scale destabilization is likely.
According to Jafarli, developments around Iran should be viewed within a broader geopolitical framework, including pressure on Russia and China and a reassessment of the so-called “Global South” concept.
