Azerbaijan.US
Political analyst Eldar Namazov says that the beginning of 2026 has brought a convergence of critical geopolitical processes affecting the South Caucasus and its wider neighborhood, with direct implications for Azerbaijan’s security and strategic environment.
Commenting on Azerbaijani-Armenian relations, Namazov noted that recent developments point to a new, more active phase of rapprochement between Baku and Yerevan. According to him, Armenia’s current leadership is taking concrete steps toward normalizing relations, a shift that contrasts with the post-war period of hesitation following the Second Karabakh War.
Namazov stressed that Azerbaijan, as the victorious side, has deliberately chosen the path of peace, while Armenia has limited alternatives. At the same time, he warned that internal political risks remain high in Armenia, particularly in the run-up to parliamentary elections. Revanchist forces and external actors, he said, may attempt to undermine the peace process, making the political choice of Armenian society a decisive factor for the future of bilateral relations.
The analyst also pointed to the practical dividends of peace, noting that economic cooperation is already producing tangible effects. In particular, he highlighted the flow of cheaper fuel and grain into Armenia via Azerbaijan, arguing that these developments are shaping public perceptions inside Armenia about the benefits of stable and pragmatic relations with Baku.
Turning to the broader international context, Namazov described the Russia-Ukraine war as having entered a strategic stalemate. He argued that neither side is capable of achieving a decisive military victory in the near term, while economic endurance is becoming the key determinant of the conflict’s trajectory. In his assessment, the likelihood of negotiations and a ceasefire increases as economic pressures intensify.
Addressing the situation around Iran, Namazov said that regional tensions remain elevated, but a direct military confrontation is not inevitable in the short term. He noted that the United States currently lacks the necessary military deployment for immediate large-scale action, and that future developments will depend both on internal dynamics within Iran and on strategic decisions made in Washington.
In conclusion, Namazov emphasized that 2026 could become a turning point for the region, with outcomes shaped not only by global power politics but also by domestic political choices in key states. For Azerbaijan, he said, maintaining strategic balance while advancing a peace-oriented agenda will remain the central challenge in a rapidly shifting regional landscape.
