Azerbaijan.US
Ongoing unrest in Iran could trigger price increases in Azerbaijan, primarily due to risks of disrupted supply chains rather than direct sanctions, Azerbaijani economist and REAL Party leader Natig Jafarli said.
Speaking on Musavat TV, Jafarli stressed that recent discussions around potential U.S. tariffs have been widely misunderstood. According to him, proposed 25 percent U.S. trade tariffs are not aimed at Iranian goods themselves and do not automatically affect imports from Iran into Azerbaijan.
“The key risk for Azerbaijan is not tariffs, but the possible breakdown of logistics,” Jafarli said. “If large-scale chaos emerges in Iran, transport routes could be disrupted, leading to supply shortages.”
Trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Iran stands at approximately $450-550 million annually, with about 90 percent consisting of Azerbaijani imports from Iran, Jafarli noted. These imports mainly include food products, household chemicals, and construction materials, most of which fall under humanitarian categories and are not subject to international sanctions.
Jafarli emphasized that Iranian products play a critical role in keeping prices down in Azerbaijan by serving as a low-cost alternative in the domestic market.
“If Iranian goods disappear, alternative imports from Turkey or China will become more expensive,” he said, warning that prices for certain construction materials and food products could rise by 20-30 percent.
He added that sweeping sanctions on all Iranian goods are unlikely, though tougher restrictions could be imposed on Iran’s oil sector, particularly given heightened geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and around the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Jafarli, even though the overall trade volume with Iran is relatively modest, the affordability of Iranian goods makes them a key factor in preventing broader inflationary pressure in Azerbaijan.
