Azerbaijan.US
The crisis unfolding in Iran is no longer an internal matter and is already influencing security calculations across the South Caucasus, Azerbaijani MP Rasim Musabekov said in an interview with News of the Caucasus.
According to Musabekov, Iran’s political system – in place for nearly five decades – has lost legitimacy both domestically and internationally. At the same time, a sudden collapse of the regime would pose serious risks for the region.
“A breakdown of Iran as a functioning state would be a regional-scale catastrophe. We have seen what state collapse led to in Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Iran is far larger and more complex,” Musabekov said.
Azerbaijan’s security posture
Musabekov stressed that Azerbaijan has been preparing for such scenarios for years. The country has fully reinforced its border with Iran, deployed additional security units, and restored key infrastructure in formerly occupied areas along the frontier.
“Closed borders were often criticized, but with Russia on one side and Iran on the other, Azerbaijan had no alternative. These decisions now look fully justified,” he said.
He noted that while physical border security is manageable, the greater challenge would be humanitarian and political, particularly in the event of refugee flows.
“The priority would be to preserve stability in Iran’s border regions and prevent chaos from spilling over,” Musabekov said.
Coordination with Turkey
Musabekov emphasized close coordination with Turkey, pointing to Ankara’s extensive experience managing large-scale migration crises.
“Turkey and Azerbaijan have sufficient resources to handle initial risks. If the situation escalates, major international actors would inevitably become involved,” he added.
Zangezur corridor gains urgency
The MP also said that instability in Iran makes the opening of regional transport links even more urgent, particularly the Zangezur corridor.
“This project must be accelerated. If Iran becomes unreliable as a transit route, the region will face serious logistical constraints,” Musabekov warned.
He added that Armenia should view regional connectivity as a mutual benefit rather than a unilateral concession.
Economic resilience
On the economic front, Musabekov said Azerbaijan is well positioned to meet its 2026 budget commitments despite volatility in energy markets.
“The State Oil Fund was designed precisely for periods like this. While oil production is declining, gas, logistics, and value-added industries are becoming increasingly important,” he said.
Musabekov concluded that Azerbaijan is gradually positioning itself as a regional logistics and energy hub, reducing long-term dependence on crude oil exports.
