Azerbaijan.US
Following reports surrounding the arrest of Nicolás Maduro, investors are closely watching whether political developments in Venezuela could have an impact on global oil prices.
According to Azerbaijani MP and economist Vugar Bayramov, several scenarios are currently being discussed, but none point to a sharp short-term price surge.
Despite differing international estimates, Venezuela does not occupy a decisive position in today’s global oil supply. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicate that Venezuela produces about 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, ranking around 18th globally. At the same time, roughly 72% of global oil production is concentrated in just ten countries. Similar figures are cited by Trading Economics, which places Venezuela 17th in global production rankings.
Export volumes remain even more limited. Venezuela ships approximately 438,000 barrels of oil per day, placing it outside the world’s top 20 exporters. These low export levels are largely attributed to long-standing international sanctions. By comparison, Saudi Arabia accounted for 15.2% of global oil exports by value in 2024, followed by Russia (9.7%), the United States (9.4%), the UAE (9.1%), and Canada (8.5%).
The key factor for investors, Bayramov notes, is Venezuela’s vast proven oil reserves. The country holds about 18.2% of global discovered reserves-more than Saudi Arabia, Canada, or Iran. If these reserves were to be actively developed with U.S. involvement, a significant increase in global supply could follow, putting downward pressure on prices.
However, such a scenario would take time. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure requires major technological modernization, meaning large volumes of additional oil would not enter the market quickly.
An alternative scenario involves internal instability or prolonged political turmoil. Even in that case, Bayramov argues, a sharp rise in oil prices is unlikely, as Venezuela’s current production and export levels are not large enough to disrupt the global balance.
Overall, while no immediate impact is expected, medium-term downward pressure on oil prices appears more likely. This trend, Bayramov concludes, further underscores the importance for oil-dependent economies to accelerate diversification and reduce reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.
