Azerbaijan.US
A letter signed by the head of Russia’s Investigative Committee and recently leaked online has exposed significant legal inconsistencies and raised fresh doubts about Moscow’s handling of the aviation case involving Azerbaijan, says Azerbaijani political analyst Farhad Mammadov.
Speaking in an interview with Daily Europe Online, Mammadov said the document appears to contradict itself on several key points, suggesting not legal clarity but an attempt to delay the resolution of the case.
According to the analyst, the letter first states that the criminal case has been closed based on the totality of evidence, then refers to the appointment of an additional aviation-technical forensic examination that has not yet been completed. At the same time, it leaves open the possibility of reassessing the circumstances within a renewed criminal investigation.
“From a legal standpoint, this sequence makes little sense,” Mammadov said. “A criminal case is either closed due to lack of corpus delicti or proceeds to court. Introducing new examinations after declaring the case closed raises serious questions.”
Contradictions and implausible explanations
Mammadov also pointed to what he described as implausible explanations cited in the letter, including references to adverse weather conditions such as cloud cover as a key factor in the incident.
“This is particularly striking given earlier public statements acknowledging the involvement of air defense systems,” he noted. “Reducing the cause to ‘cloudiness’ does not withstand technical or logical scrutiny.”
The analyst stressed that Azerbaijani authorities were granted access to investigative materials on Russian territory and that key documents, including audio recordings, could only have been obtained within the framework of official investigative cooperation. In his view, the public release of information by Azerbaijani media over the past year served as a signal that Baku is fully informed about the details of the case.
Buying time, not resolving the issue
Mammadov believes the leaked letter reflects a broader strategy aimed at prolonging the process rather than bringing it to a conclusion. He linked this to delays in submitting final findings to the international commission operating in Kazakhstan, which includes Azerbaijan, Russia, and other stakeholders.
“The pattern suggests an effort to buy time,” he said. “But time does not eliminate responsibility.”
According to Mammadov, Azerbaijan’s position has remained consistent and is based on four key expectations: acknowledgment of responsibility, an official apology, punishment of those responsible, and the payment of compensation. While some elements, such as expressions of regret, have been voiced publicly, the remaining steps have yet to be completed.
Options remain on the table
The analyst emphasized that Azerbaijan is not seeking escalation and has avoided internationalizing the issue unnecessarily. However, he warned that continued delays could prompt Baku to activate additional legal and diplomatic mechanisms.
“Azerbaijan knows how to wait,” Mammadov said. “But it also knows how to act. If expectations are not met, the country has both domestic legal instruments and international avenues at its disposal.”
He added that the situation has already evolved beyond a purely technical investigation and now affects broader bilateral relations. Attempts to prolong the process in hopes of altering Azerbaijan’s stance, he argued, are unlikely to succeed.
