Azerbaijan.US
The international system of legitimacy has effectively collapsed, and global politics is increasingly driven by raw power rather than rules, political analyst Eldar Namazov said during a live discussion on “Novosti Kavkaza” Youtube channel, on regional and global developments.
According to Namazov, while recent events in Venezuela have drawn global attention, three issues remain critical for Azerbaijan’s national security: the political trajectory of Armenia, the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the unfolding Iranian crisis.
“These are the processes that will directly shape Azerbaijan’s strategic environment,” he said.
Shift From Rules to Power
Namazov argued that recent U.S. actions reflect a broader reality: international law no longer acts as an effective restraint.
“The world has entered a phase of ‘peace through force.’ States that openly violated international norms for years are now encountering decisive responses,” he said.
He described U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy as rooted in domestic political consensus, supported by three key groups within his administration and electorate: traditional neoconservatives, business-oriented pragmatists, and isolationists focused on the Western Hemisphere.
Iran: No Positive Scenarios Ahead
Namazov devoted particular attention to Iran, describing the country as entering a deep systemic crisis marked by economic collapse, social unrest, and the erosion of ideological cohesion.
He outlined three possible scenarios:
Political transformation of the current system,
Federalization, driven by regional and ethnic pressures,
or, in a more extreme case, state fragmentation.
Namazov stressed that Iranian Azerbaijanis are deliberately avoiding the role of protest vanguard, opting instead for strategic patience and preserving their own long-term agenda.
Russia After the War
The analyst also warned that the end of the war in Ukraine would likely trigger serious internal turbulence in Russia, including debates over responsibility for the conflict and the country’s growing dependence on China.
“Russia risks becoming a raw-materials appendage – first to China, and later to others. This question will dominate internal discussions once the war ends,” Namazov said.
South Caucasus: Risks and Readiness
According to Namazov, Azerbaijan operates in a uniquely vulnerable geopolitical space, bordering both Russia and Iran. However, he argued that the country is better prepared than ever for potential regional shocks.
He highlighted Azerbaijan’s military alliance with Turkey, strategic partnership with Israel, growing cooperation with Pakistan, and expanding ties with the United States.
“Risks always come with opportunities. Azerbaijan’s task is to be ready for both,” he concluded.
