Azerbaijan.US
Seeing a high likelihood that the TRIPP route will become a lasting geopolitical reality, the Kremlin is seeking to preserve its influence in the South Caucasus by participating in the project in one form or another, political analyst Ilyas Huseynov said.
Speaking to Report, Huseynov noted that a number of important processes have been unfolding in the region since the historic agreements reached in the United States on August 8 last year, including the initialing of a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
He recalled that at an early stage, Russia and Iran voiced synchronized opposition to the so-called “Trump Route,” but that this alignment has since shifted.
According to Huseynov, Moscow and Tehran have not always shared identical positions on the launch of infrastructure projects and the opening of transport corridors, despite the issue being discussed at various high-level meetings.
“At this point, we see that Russia is also prepared to cooperate with the United States in the South Caucasus,” the analyst said.
Huseynov linked Moscow’s evolving stance to the broader geopolitical context, particularly developments surrounding the Russia–Ukraine war. He said Russia is currently engaged in direct talks with Washington and is effectively prioritizing the U.S. position in discussions over Ukraine’s future, while Europe remains largely sidelined.
“Recognizing that the probability of the TRIPP route becoming a geopolitical reality is very high, the Kremlin is trying at least to participate in this project in some format in order to maintain its leverage in the region,” he said.
The expert added that Russia is signaling it does not intend to stay outside the renewed regional momentum in the South Caucasus. As examples, he pointed to meetings between Azerbaijani and Armenian civil society representatives, the transit of Kazakh grain to Armenia through Azerbaijan, the supply of Azerbaijani oil products to Armenia via Georgia, and the subsequent delivery of Russian grain along the same route.
According to Huseynov, these developments indicate a broader trend toward normalization and pragmatic cooperation, prompting Moscow to explore new opportunities related to regional communication lines.
He also argued that Russia increasingly recognizes that regional processes are no longer unfolding solely within the framework of the November 10, 2020 trilateral statement. While that document previously reflected broader Russian interests and security prerogatives, the current situation has changed.
Huseynov recalled that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly stated that the opening of communication routes has also had a positive impact on Armenia–Russia relations, suggesting that Yerevan does not seek to exclude Moscow from regional processes.
“If U.S. and Russian global interests reach a certain level of alignment, this will inevitably be reflected in developments in the South Caucasus as well,” Huseynov concluded.
