Azerbaijan.US
Azerbaijan’s macroeconomic indicators for 2026 are projected to improve compared to 2025, with the government forecasting stronger growth and easing inflation. The state budget for the coming year is expected to be the largest in the country’s post-independence history.
According to MP Vugar Bayramov, the total budget expenditures in 2026 will exceed 41 billion manats. Around 7.6 billion manats are earmarked specifically to stimulate economic activity, including funding for reconstruction and development in the liberated territories.
Overall economic growth is forecast at 3.5%, with the non-oil sector expected to outperform the broader economy. Growth in the non-oil segment is projected to exceed 5%, while its share in gross domestic product is expected to reach 70%. Analysts say this confirms the non-oil sector’s role as the primary driver of both economic expansion and fiscal revenues.
Inflationary pressures are also expected to ease. While inflation stood at around 6% in 2025, forecasts for 2026 place the figure at below 5%, reflecting a more stable price environment.
At the same time, the overall growth of the state budget is projected at 0.7%, one of the lowest increases in recent years. Economists note that a sub-1% increase signals a cautious fiscal approach focused on stability rather than aggressive expansion. Budget revenues and expenditures are expected to follow broadly similar trajectories.
Experts argue that under current macroeconomic conditions, the 2026 budget has been designed to be both conservative and realistically executable. While a higher growth rate of 1.5-2% could theoretically have been targeted, this may have increased the risk of implementation challenges during the fiscal year.
Overall, Azerbaijan’s 2026 state budget is seen as a prudent response to existing economic realities, balancing growth objectives with fiscal discipline and macroeconomic stability.
