Azerbaijan.US
The war between Russia and Ukraine entered 2026 without a resolution, following another year of active fighting marked by continued clashes along the front line, drone and missile strikes, and significant civilian and military casualties. The conflict persisted through the first year of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, despite shifts in Washington’s diplomatic approach.
Changes in U.S. policy became more visible with the Trump administration’s 28-point plan, but these efforts did not translate into a breakthrough. Both Russia and Ukraine began 2026 still locked in a state of war, with diplomacy running in parallel to military operations rather than replacing them.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that around 90 percent of the framework for a potential agreement had been prepared and that Kyiv would continue diplomatic efforts in 2026, including initiatives related to prisoner exchanges. At the same time, he stressed that sustained international support remains essential for Ukraine’s defense.
“We started this year with diplomacy and continue working with our partners,” Zelensky said, adding that the level of international assistance directly affects Ukraine’s frontline forces, defense industry, and overall resilience.
Russia’s leadership, however, has reiterated its own narrative. President Vladimir Putin once again described Ukrainian territories as historically Russian, framing the war as a fight for identity and justice and portraying Russian soldiers as defending what he called their “native land.”
Most analysts do not expect a comprehensive peace agreement in 2026. In Kyiv, officials argue that any ceasefire or peace deal must be based on Ukraine’s conditions, emphasizing that Ukraine is the victim of aggression and that international law prioritizes sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly stated they are not prepared to sign any agreement resembling capitulation and insist on the full restoration of control over occupied territories. Diplomatic efforts, they say, will continue regardless of how long the process takes.
Skepticism about peace prospects also exists within Russia. Analysts note that the peace proposal described as “90 percent agreed” does not include Moscow’s core demands. While the document may contain elements that Russia could accept in principle, it does not address the strategic objectives declared by the Kremlin since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
According to Russian commentators, the proposal largely reflects Ukraine’s position and appears to have been coordinated with the United States and supported by the European Union. From this perspective, Ukraine and its Western partners would secure political and economic gains, while Russia would be left in the position of a defeated party facing long-term consequences.
Territorial disputes remain another major obstacle to ending the war in 2026. Ukraine maintains a firm stance against any territorial concessions, while Russia demands international recognition of its control over seized areas – a gap that currently leaves little room for compromise.
Analysts suggest that the most realistic scenario for 2026 is not a final peace agreement, but a temporary reduction in active hostilities without a comprehensive settlement. Such an outcome could result in another frozen conflict, carrying the risk of renewed escalation in the future.
