Azerbaijan.US
Winter 2026 is expected to be wetter and more unstable than in recent years, according to long-term weather models from the United States and Europe. Meteorologists say the forecast may signal the gradual end of a prolonged drought cycle that has affected parts of the region for decades.
Experts note that increased precipitation could also have a positive impact on the Caspian Sea’s water level. At the same time, dry conditions have persisted for nearly 30 years in parts of the Caucasus, as well as in areas toward Iran and Israel. Climate specialists point out that similar cycles were observed in the 1960s and 1970s, when wetter periods alternated with extended droughts.
According to current assessments, the ongoing dry phase is likely approaching its final stage. In the coming years, the region may transition into a more precipitation-rich cycle, raising expectations for a return of more typical winter conditions.
For Azerbaijan, winter 2026 is forecast to remain relatively mild, largely due to the country’s terrain and proximity to the Caspian Sea. Prolonged severe cold is considered unlikely in Baku and on the Absheron Peninsula, where the coldest period is traditionally expected in February.
During individual nights, temperatures may drop to between minus 4 and minus 16 degrees Celsius. Similar cold spells were recorded in previous years, including the winters of 2007, 2008, and 2012. In February 2012, minimum temperatures in some areas fell to around minus 11 degrees.
As for precipitation, rainfall and snowfall in Baku, the Absheron Peninsula, and the regions are expected to be close to the climatic norm or slightly above average. Short-term intrusions of cold air masses may lead to brief sharp temperature drops, though such episodes are not expected to last long.
Overall, average winter temperatures in 2026 are forecast to remain near seasonal norms, while in Baku and Absheron they may be around 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius above long-term averages.
