Azerbaijan.US
Economist and public commentator Natig Jafarli has said that Azerbaijan’s land borders are likely to remain closed at least until April 1, 2026, calling the prolonged restrictions a growing reputational issue for the country.
In a statement published on social media, Jafarli argued that the continued limitation of citizens’ constitutional rights through the so-called “Operational Headquarters” – a body not предусмотрено by the Constitution – has become increasingly difficult to justify.
According to Jafarli, three main explanations are usually cited for keeping land borders closed, none of which, in his view, withstand serious scrutiny.
The first claim – that borders remain closed to benefit Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) – is, he says, misleading.
Jafarli notes that the only direction where AZAL may see additional revenue is the Baku–Tbilisi route, which operates just five to six flights per week. Even under ideal conditions, the potential annual profit from this route would amount to approximately $25–26 million.
However, he points out that similar flight volumes existed even when land borders were open, and demand for air travel did not disappear. “Keeping borders closed for this reason alone would be economically irrational,” Jafarli said.
The second argument – national security concerns – is described by the economist as particularly damaging.
If Azerbaijan possesses strong armed forces and security institutions, he argues, citing security as a justification appears unconvincing. Jafarli compares the situation with neighboring countries, noting that Georgia and Armenia – as well as Ukraine, despite being at war – have not resorted to prolonged land border closures.
The third explanation – preventing cash outflows and cross-border trade – is dismissed as a basic misunderstanding of economics.
According to Jafarli, consumer demand does not disappear when borders close. Goods that were once purchased abroad are now imported by companies, with foreign currency still leaving the country – only at a higher cost for consumers. At the same time, Azerbaijan has lost potential revenue from tourism and border trade, which previously benefited the economy.
Jafarli concludes that none of the publicly stated reasons adequately explain the policy. He calls for a clear and honest explanation from authorities, stressing that the social and psychological consequences of closed borders are increasingly visible.
He also draws attention to the impact on hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Georgia, who have faced significant difficulties over the past five years due to restricted movement.
“Our compatriots abroad have long viewed Azerbaijan as a source of pride and support,” Jafarli said. “It is unclear how alienating them serves the country’s interests.”
