By Azerbaijan.US Editorial Board
Russia keeps insisting it remains a decisive power in the South Caucasus.
Reality: the region has already moved on – without asking for permission.
The old model – freeze conflicts, insert troops, dominate diplomacy – collapsed the moment Azerbaijan rewrote the map.
First in 2020, then in 2023, and finally by denying Moscow a permanent peacekeeping foothold.
Russia didn’t “withdraw.” It was outpaced.
Karabakh ended – and Russia wasn’t part of the ending
Armenia recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.
The separatists vanished.
Azerbaijan restored sovereignty.
Russia’s peacekeepers packed up.
Moscow is the only actor still pretending there is a “Karabakh question.”
There isn’t.
Azerbaijan outgrew Russia
Baku now operates as a confident regional power – shaping the Middle Corridor, driving OTS integration, deepening ties with Türkiye, the U.S., the EU, and Central Asia.
Not because it’s anti-Russian, but because it no longer needs Russia.
Armenia broke the dependency cycle
Pashinyan’s government abandoned the entire post-Soviet doctrine – Miatsum, strategic reliance on Moscow, and the belief that Russia guarantees security.
Even if Armenian politics shifts again, the psychological break with the Kremlin is irreversible.
Russia’s influence now exists only on paper
Moscow still issues statements, maintains embassies, and invokes “historic ties.”
But power isn’t what you claim – it’s what others accept.
The South Caucasus no longer sees Russia as arbiter, referee, or guarantor.
It sees Russia as one actor among many, overshadowed by Türkiye, the U.S., the EU, China, and the Gulf.
The verdict
Russia hasn’t left the region. But the region has left Russia.
Moscow may not admit it – great powers rarely do – but the South Caucasus has entered a post-Russia era, and no amount of nostalgia or rhetoric can turn the clock back.
