The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Azerbaijan’s foreign exchange reserves will reach $11.9 billion by the end of 2025 – slightly up from $11.31 billion at the end of September.
The reserves are expected to decline to $11.7 billion in 2026 and $9.6 billion by 2030, according to the IMF’s latest regional outlook.
The Fund also revised its forecast for Azerbaijan’s public debt, estimating that the gross government debt will stand at 22.4% of GDP in 2025, down from the earlier projection of 27.6%. The figure is expected to rise moderately to 23.5% in 2026 and 24.9% by 2030.
Azerbaijan’s external public debt currently stands at $4.9 billion, while the government projects the total debt to reach 25.4 billion manats by end-2025.
Meanwhile, the IMF expects non-oil GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026, and 3.5% by 2030, with overall GDP growth slowing to 3% next year after 4.1% in 2024.
The Fund’s report highlights that a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia could “open the door to broader regional cooperation and integration,” while fiscal policies across the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) are expected to remain expansionary in 2025 before tightening from 2026 onward.
For the wider region, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 5.6% in 2025, 4.7% in 2026, and 4% by 2030, noting that oil-exporting countries such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan may see stronger-than-expected growth if recent infrastructure and trade developments continue to deliver.
Azerbaijan’s exports of goods and services are forecast at $28.4 billion in 2025, while imports are projected at $23.4 billion, narrowing the trade surplus amid lower energy prices and rising domestic demand.
