Oil prices have been trending downward in global markets, as shifting dynamics in the Middle East, OPEC+ production adjustments, and global economic headwinds continue to shape investor sentiment.
Economist Akif Nasirli told Sfera.az that forecasting oil market behavior remains difficult because prices are influenced by numerous intertwined factors.
“Current data and trends suggest prices may continue moving lower in the near term,” he said.
“While the OPEC+ group remains cautious with its production policy, some member states have already begun gradually easing restrictions. For November, OPEC+ decided on a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day – not a major jump, but a sign of a phased expansion in supply.”
Nasirli added that growing output from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Canada, and Brazil is also putting downward pressure on prices. The International Energy Agency forecasts a global supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. production to hit a record high next year.
“Risks of global economic slowdown, U.S.–China trade tensions, and the Gaza ceasefire have reduced the ‘risk premium’ in oil prices,” he noted. “Geopolitical risks are not as elevated as before, which helps stabilize the market and pushes prices slightly lower.”
Still, the economist warned that any escalation of conflict in the Middle East – especially scenarios involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – could trigger short-term price spikes.
“If production keeps rising and demand doesn’t recover, prices may fall further,” Nasirli said. “But military clashes or infrastructure damage in the region could send prices sharply higher, even if only temporarily.”
