Moscow/Khankendi /Yerevan, September 15, 2025
Russian journalist and foreign policy analyst Kirill Krivosheev argued in a post on his Telegram channel that the case of Karen Avanesyan, the Armenian resident of Khankendi detained after an armed clash with Azerbaijani police, could have long-lasting political consequences.
The Last Armenians in Khankendi
According to Krivosheev, Avanesyan is one of only 13 Armenians still living in Khankendi after last year’s exodus. The number fell from 14 following the death of a woman in November 2024.
Reports from Azerbaijani outlets claim Avanesyan retrieved a Kalashnikov rifle and grenades from a hidden cache and attempted to approach a venue during President Ilham Aliyev’s recent visit to the region, where he inaugurated a new university building. Police say he resisted arrest, throwing three grenades before being subdued.
Potential Political Fallout
Krivosheev emphasized that the event presents a dilemma for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. He faces a difficult choice between condemning the attack to maintain the peace process with Baku or refraining from criticism to protect his domestic political standing ahead of future elections.
The analyst warned that the incident could spark unrest in Yerevan, where some groups may hail Avanesyan as a hero and pledge to continue armed resistance.
“This is not the last hidden cache of weapons,” Krivosheev cautioned, raising the possibility of further attempts to infiltrate Karabakh by mountain routes.
Legal and Diplomatic Implications
On the Azerbaijani side, Krivosheev posed the question of whether authorities will treat the incident as the act of a lone individual or pursue a wider investigation into possible links with Yerevan and detained figures such as Ruben Vardanyan and Arayik Harutyunyan.
Krivosheev concluded that the handling of Avanesyan’s case may heavily influence not only bilateral relations but also the public mood in Armenia, making it a potential flashpoint in the fragile post-war peace process.
