Baku, September 13, 2025
Israel’s strike on Doha remains one of the hottest topics in international debate. Yet the conversation is shifting toward an even more dangerous scenario: a potential clash between Israel and Turkey.
According to reports in the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, Israel initially considered an operation on Turkish soil, where several Hamas leaders are believed to reside. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government allegedly ruled it out, fearing direct escalation with a NATO member, and chose instead to hit Hamas headquarters in Qatar, where fallout could be contained diplomatically via Washington.
This angle was also discussed in a recent Minval.az article, which underlined how such a scenario would inevitably raise alarm in Baku.
Whether or not to believe such leaks is open to question. What is undeniable, however, is the growing tension between Israel and Turkey. And for Azerbaijan, this is not just another foreign crisis.
Azerbaijan Between Two Allies
For Baku, both countries matter. Turkey is more than a strategic partner; it is a brother nation, bound by the Shusha Declaration. Israel, meanwhile, is a key defense and technology partner whose support proved vital during the 44-day war in 2020. A serious rupture between Ankara and Tel Aviv would expose Azerbaijan to risks it cannot afford: political, military, and societal. The intensity of debates on Azerbaijani social media reflects this unease.
The Risks of Escalation
Israel’s record of targeted killings abroad stretches back decades, and Netanyahu himself once served as a Sayeret Matkal commando. But Turkey is not Qatar.
It is the second-largest military power in NATO after the U.S., a state with its own international coalition. Any Israeli attempt to strike inside Turkey would trigger disastrous consequences: collapse of what remains of regional security, already shaken since the October 7 attacks and Israel’s Gaza campaign.
Quiet Diplomacy in Baku
Against this backdrop, Azerbaijan is likely to use its unique position as a bridge between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Confidential trilateral talks already took place in Baku earlier this year, though their outcomes remain undisclosed. Such channels could prove vital now, as tensions rise.
Israel’s Diplomatic Decline
Just two years ago, Israeli diplomacy was making gains with Gulf monarchies and even warming ties with Turkey. Today, those advances are in tatters. The Gaza war, followed by the Doha strike, has reversed much of that progress.
Worse for Netanyahu, even the European Union is openly debating sanctions. For a country that depends on international legitimacy and partnerships, this is more than a warning bell – it is a siren.
Israel faces a choice: continue down a path of isolation and confrontation, or reconsider its strategy before it ignites a conflict too big to control.
