Baku, September 13
The United States has approved an initial $145 million tranche for Armenia to rehabilitate a key stretch of the cross-border route often dubbed the Zangezur corridor and branded by Washington interlocutors as TRIPP (the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), signaling a shift from talks to implementation.
That’s the assessment of Ilgar Velizade, head of the South Caucasus Political Scientists’ Club, speaking on the Daily Europe Online YouTube channel.
Velizade said the funds are intended for the Meghri segment on Armenian territory and will be administered by the Armenian government. He linked the figure to earlier Armenian cost estimates from late 2021—roughly $220 – 230 million – and argued the first tranche is “base funding,” with additional disbursements likely as works proceed.
The analyst tied the financing to a week of accelerated diplomacy: a U.S. interagency delegation in Baku to discuss transport connectivity and a border meeting between the Turkish and Armenian special envoys. Taken together, he said, these moves “cement the sense that the project has entered a practical phase.”
Turkey – Armenia track and market signals
Velizade noted that normalization steps between Ankara and Yerevan are being synchronized with the Armenia – Azerbaijan connectivity agenda. He pointed to public messaging from Armenian officials about Azerbaijani and Turkish goods appearing on Armenian shelves and the prospect of easing border restrictions.
Much of this, he argued, formalizes trade and aviation patterns that already exist informally, including routine overflights through each other’s airspace.
Public mood in Armenia
Asked about protests in Armenia against engagement with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Velizade said turnout at recent youth rallies was meager and described hardline currents as marginalized.
He cautioned against reading too much into polling “snapshots,” but argued that the absence of sustained street action suggests society is adjusting to a new, more pragmatic agenda focused on economic opening.
Geography over ideology
Velizade framed the policy shift as a recognition of economic geography. Landlocked Armenia, he said, cannot prosper with most of its borders constrained and with limited routes to global markets.
Comparisons to Israel’s economy, he added, are inapt given different geographies and sea access. Unlocking east–west and north–south lines is, in his view, a structural necessity rather than a tactical choice.
On “Western Azerbaijan” and reciprocal returns
Touching on statements from representatives of the Western Azerbaijan community, Velizade called their readiness – at least in principle – to accept Armenian citizenship and live in Armenia a rhetorical gesture toward reciprocity on movement and residence.
He did not predict rapid population shifts, but said the broader transformation could, over time, enable freer mobility of people and business if borders open and diplomatic relations are established.
Armenian opposition and outside influence
Velizade portrayed figures from Armenia’s former leadership as politically spent, arguing their methods and messaging are out of step with current realities.
He said networks that once financed hardline agendas – whether from the Kremlin or diaspora circles – struggle to reinvent themselves in the new context.
