BAKU, September 9
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has left its production forecast for Azerbaijan’s liquid hydrocarbons unchanged for 2025 and 2026, according to the agency’s latest monthly report.
EIA projects Azerbaijan’s oil and condensate output this year at 570,000 barrels per day (bpd), in line with its June forecast. Actual production averaged 570,000 bpd in the first and second quarters of 2025, while output in the third and fourth quarters is expected to ease slightly to 560,000 bpd — figures consistent with July estimates.
In 2024, Azerbaijan produced an average of 600,000 bpd, with output dipping to 590,000 bpd in the second and third quarters before rebounding to 600,000 bpd in the fourth.
Looking ahead, the EIA also reaffirmed its 2026 forecast at 540,000 bpd, unchanged from its July outlook. Quarterly projections remain steady at 550,000 bpd in Q1, 540,000 bpd in Q2, and 530,000 bpd in both Q3 and Q4.
The forecast suggests a gradual but steady decline from 2024 levels, reflecting both natural field depletion and limits under Azerbaijan’s commitments to OPEC+.
