Baku, September 20, 2025
Armenia’s prime minister is clearly moving into campaign mode and tying a future peace deal with Azerbaijan to a new Armenian constitution, said Chingiz Mammadov, former presidential communications director in Baku and a UN program lead, in an interview with Daily Europe Online.
Mammadov called Nikol Pashinyan’s party-congress speech “highly emotional but familiar in content,” adding that the core takeaway was a plan to seek a mandate for constitutional change – and, if secured, to clear the way for a treaty with Baku. He framed Pashinyan’s style as “national psychotherapy,” noting the premier’s repeated appeal to mothers and to a public weary of war after 2020.
On substance, Mammadov argued that Baku’s priorities remain two structural issues:
- a reliable land link between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, and
- constitutional amendments in Armenia that, in Baku’s view, would signal society’s rejection of past territorial claims.
He contended that an unhindered Nakhchivan route would be a “reasonable correction” of Soviet-era arrangements and would benefit Armenia economically by easing access to Syunik, Iran and Turkey.
Mammadov pointed to de-escalation on the border – “a year and seven months without shooting,” as Pashinyan also claimed – and noted what he called a meaningful signal: a high-level Armenian security delegation’s recent trip to Baku for a forum, alongside growing pragmatic use of each other’s airspace.
Domestically, he said Armenia’s opposition remains fragmented and burdened by “old faces,” while Pashinyan’s “peace vs. war” message resonates with a broad base that “knows the human price of conflict.” Still, he warned of resistance from parts of the diaspora, the church, and groups he labeled deeply skeptical of concessions.
On geopolitics, Mammadov read Pashinyan’s recent tone toward Moscow as an attempt to lower emotions in ties with Russia, even as, in his view, the Kremlin retains more leverage in Armenia than in Azerbaijan or Georgia. He also described the U.S. and EU roles as turning “more positive,” with potential economic support flows to Yerevan.
Armenia is now the main arena, Mammadov argued – the 2026 parliamentary race and any constitutional referendum will determine whether a Washington-framed peace track can translate into workable procedures on transit and borders. “If society backs the changes, Baku will read it as credibility for peace,” he said.
